As we move forward we would like to provide you with more details about our portfolio. We prefer to discuss individual positions close to the time of harvest. We do this to avoid a common pitfall that humans tend to fall into while analyzing complex situations: commitment and consistency. To say it another way, once an individual announces publicly his position on a topic it is very hard for him to change his mind even in the face of opposing evidence. In fact, this trait is so strong and pervasive that people tend to only look for additional information that confirms their stated position and ignore any additional information that doesn’t (confirmation bias)1.
That said, after harvest we will start to regularly write to you some examples of individual investments we realized and how we assessed the investment opportunity supported by our research. To give you some examples of the wide range of opportunities we currently see in the world we created the following table that illustrates some of the secular changes we are following and investing in. The last column provides a sense of how much runway left we see on each of these trends. As you will see there is still plenty of secular opportunity ahead of us.
1 If you are interested in learning more about this topic and additional examples of how our brain can trick us, I strongly recommend the book “Influence” by Robert Cialdini. In the US you can buy it on Amazon on: https://www.amazon.com/Influence-Psychology-Persuasion-Robert-Cialdini/dp/006124189X